Measuring Central Bank Communication: An Automated Approach with Application to FOMC Statements

We present a new automated, objective and intuitive scoring technique to measure the content of central bank communication about future interest rate decisions based on information from the Internet and news sources. We apply the methodology to statements released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) after its policy meetings starting in 1999. Using intra-day financial quotes, we find that short-term nominal Treasury yields respond to changes in policy rates around policy announcements, whereas longer-dated Treasuries mainly react to changes in policy communication. Using lower frequency data, we find that changes in the content of the statements lead policy rate decisions by more than a year in univariate interest rate forecasting and vector autoregression (VAR) models. When we estimate Treasury yield responses to the shocks identified in the VAR, we find communication to be a more important determinant of Treasury rates than contemporaneous policy rate decisions. These results are consistent with the view that the FOMC releases information about future policy rate actions in its statements and that market participants incorporate this information when pricing longer-dated Treasuries. Finally, we decompose realized policy rate decisions using a forward-looking Taylor rule model. Based on this decomposition, we find that FOMC statements contain significant information regarding both the predicted rule-based interest rate and the Taylor-rule residual component, and that content of the statements leads the residual by a few quarters.

Исследовательская деятельность эколого-биологической направленности в НОУ "Эврика" - эффективное средство профессиональной ориентации учащихся

В статье научно-исследовательская деятельность эколого-биологической направленности старшеклассников НОУ "Эврика" г. Нижнего Новгорода рассматривается как одна из значимых инновационных форм профессионального самоопределения. Материалом исследования послужил анализ программ конференции городского научного общества учащихся "Эврика" и судьбы выпускников данного общества. Отмечена тенденция роста популярности эколого-биологических исследований среди старшеклассников г. Нижнего Новгорода и успешное вхождение в профессию выпускников научного общества учащихся.In the article, the research activity of the ecology and biology of senior pupils of the scientific society of the pupils "Eureka" in Nizhny Novgorod is considered as one of the significant innovative forms of professional self-determination. The material of the study was the analysis of the programs of the conference of the city scientific society of the students "Eureka" and the fate of the graduates of this society. The tendency of growth of popularity of ecological and biological researches among senior pupils of Nizhny Novgorod and successful entry into the profession of graduates of the scientific society of students is noted

Genome-Wide Linkage Analysis of Global Gene Expression in Loin Muscle Tissue Identifies Candidate Genes in Pigs

BACKGROUND: Nearly 6,000 QTL have been reported for 588 different traits in pigs, more than in any other livestock species. However, this effort has translated into only a few confirmed causative variants. A powerful strategy for revealing candidate genes involves expression QTL (eQTL) mapping, where the mRNA abundance of a set of transcripts is used as the response variable for a QTL scan. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We utilized a whole genome expression microarray and an F(2) pig resource population to conduct a global eQTL analysis in loin muscle tissue, and compared results to previously inferred phenotypic QTL (pQTL) from the same experimental cross. We found 62 unique eQTL (FDR <10%) and identified 3 gene networks enriched with genes subject to genetic control involved in lipid metabolism, DNA replication, and cell cycle regulation. We observed strong evidence of local regulation (40 out of 59 eQTL with known genomic position) and compared these eQTL to pQTL to help identify potential candidate genes. Among the interesting associations, we found aldo-keto reductase 7A2 (AKR7A2) and thioredoxin domain containing 12 (TXNDC12) eQTL that are part of a network associated with lipid metabolism and in turn overlap with pQTL regions for marbling, % intramuscular fat (% fat) and loin muscle area on Sus scrofa (SSC) chromosome 6. Additionally, we report 13 genomic regions with overlapping eQTL and pQTL involving 14 local eQTL. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Results of this analysis provide novel candidate genes for important complex pig phenotypes

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift

This paper presents preliminary findings and is being distributed to economists and other interested readers solely to stimulate discussion and elicit comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and are not necessarily reflective of views at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors. The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drif